This post was written before the game finished last night, so hopefully it gives some insight into how we’ll try and take a 2-0 lead. The opposition in game 2 will be Clayton Kershaw. First, as usual, a summary table

Pitch pfx_x pfx_z Velo % Thrown SLGCON Whiff
FF 2.93 13.1 94.0 70% 0.405 21%
SL -4.85 1.55 81.2 6% 0.417 42%
CU -4.15 -6.72 72.6 18.5% 0.261 24%
CH 5.42 11.42 82.5 5% 0.581 26%

Kershaw is clearly the real deal, with good stuff across the board. He obviously pitches off of his plus fastball, using it 70% of the time. Just to get a feel for how the Cardinals hitters may do against Kershaw, I investigated how they have done against plus velocity fastballs. First, Left handed fastballs >92mph

Hitter SLGCON Whiff
Pujols 0.820 11%
Holliday 0.576 24%
Ludwick 0.714 16%
Molina 0.214 12%
Schumaker 0.143 18%
DeRosa 0.484 18%
Ryan 0.464 11%
Rasmus 0.200 27%
Ankiel 0.300 32%
Lugo 0.733 5%

I used 92 mph instead of 93 as I had originally planned to expand the sample sizes a little. That being said, most of them are still fairly small samples, especially Rasmus and Ankiel.

It would seem to me, that if we’re going to see Lugo at any time during these playoffs, this game would be the time.  Also of note is that Holliday has struggled against hard lefty fastballs as well, so look for Torre to continue to walk Albert.

And finally, just for good measure, another heat graph

Kershaw vs RHB


I think the two red spikes are outliers that were just doubles on the only pitches hit up there…  the shading of greens may be more useful.

Steve Sommer

Simulation analyst by day, father and baseball nerd by night

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