Comments on: Marcel and the Cardinals

By: erik

erik — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 00:59:34 +0000

Tango says ”

So, I’ll make that my rule of thumb: if at least one-third of your games is as a starter, you classify as a starter. Otherwise, you are a reliever. (This of course is based on the idea that you only want two buckets.)

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This only applies to the recent seasons. If I go back one more year, I get almost 50%.”

By: DCGreg

DCGreg — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 15:11:03 +0000

Erik, do the pitching projections assume guys like Boggs and Hawksworth are starters or relievers or a combination?

By: stevesommer05

stevesommer05 — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 04:24:50 +0000

From the FAQ:

“But, what about a player who’s never played MLB? Where’s his forecast?” That’s simple. His forecast is the league mean over 200 PA, 60 IP (starter) or 25 IP (reliever). If you want to know what the league mean is, just take the average of anyone forecast with a reliability of 0.00. So, Marcel’s official forecast for anyone coming over from Japan is that.”

By: stevesommer05

stevesommer05 — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 04:20:45 +0000

I think you are correct in that it doesn’t include minor league stats. IIRC it uses league average for all players with no MLB experience, and would just heavily regress for someone with nominal MLB experience. I’ll do a little digging.

By: erik

erik — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 03:49:27 +0000

I’m not sure either. I think it just uses straight MLEs, but I don’t know.

By: azruavatar

azruavatar — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 03:28:53 +0000

And I take that back given that it’s projecting Freese. I need to revisit how Marcel deals with minor league players.

By: azruavatar

azruavatar — Wed, 13 Jan 2010 03:27:52 +0000

That puts Holliday at or above 4.5 WAR for next year (assuming neutral defense).

Marcel doesn’t incorporate any minor league stats (IIRC) so it’s going to be more negative on Rasmus than other projection systems. I’d love to see him bust out and put all the projections to shame.