PECOTA NL Central Standings

Season’s over, we win.

Little work has been done on the depth charts, I’m told. And there are some free agents to be had out there still. But for what it’s worth, here’s the NL Central.

W	L	RS	RA
89	73	802	724	St. Louis Cardinals
82	80	780	772	Cincinnati Reds
77	85	779	823	Chicago Cubs
75	87	766	829	Houston Astros
75	87	827	895	Milwaukee Brewers
70	92	754	873	Pittsburgh Pirates

Some of the other divisions look pretty strange to me – like the NL East, for instance, but this jives OK with my pathetically unsophisticated Win Talent WAR estimates OK enough. The only real shocker to me is the Brewers, who I think is a better team on paper than PECOTA does, apparently.

The ZiPS are out too. Here’s the ZiPS, wOBA-fied for hitters and FIP-ified for the pitchers:

Name
wOBA


Pujols
0.456


Holliday
0.386


Ludwick
0.365


Schumaker
0.338


Craig
0.331


Molina
0.330


Mather
0.329


Freese
0.328


Rasmus
0.325


Gotay
0.323


Stavinoha
0.318


Lugo
0.315


Descalso
0.314


Jay
0.313


Ryan
0.311


Anderson
0.307


Robinson
0.305


Greene
0.274


LaRue
0.273

The return of the Thudwick! ZiPS isn’t as bullish on Freese as other projections. I’m going to pretend I didn’t even see these Brendan Ryan and Colby Rasmus projections.

Name
IP
HR
BB

K
FIP


Wainwright
205.6
14
59

184
3.16


Smoltz
100.3
10
23

90
3.39


Miller
41.6
4
16

44
3.49


Carpenter
93.3
7
24

66
3.53


Reyes
38.3
3
18

32
3.96


Franklin
66.3
6
21

44
4.00


McClellan
70
6
28

53
4.00


Motte
64
8
28

67
4.04


Penny
151.6
16
50

90
4.37


Lohse
153
18
46

93
4.42


Hawksworth
63.6
7
25

43
4.46


Sanchez
56.3
6
29

47
4.46


Garcia
66.3
8
30

51
4.59


Lynn
118.6
14
55

77
4.83


Hill
93.3
11
54

76
4.84


Perez
67.3
10
29

53
4.85


Walters
87.3
13
37

64
4.94


Boggs
145
17
72

86
5.03


Jukich
129
18
56

82
5.04


MacLane
148.6
24
36

66
5.14


Zink
142.6
15
70

53
5.30


Ottavino
131.6
17
83

87
5.45


Samuel
52
6
52

50
5.78


Norrick
71
10
51

46
5.89

Cy Waino? The odd disinterest in Smoltz or any reliever that can miss bats is starting to concern me.  I’m sure Steve or I will have more on the projections now that we have PECOTA, ZiPS, CHONE, Bill James and Marcels out. It won’t be long now until pitchers and catchers report.

Erik Manning

Erik became addicted to Cardinals baseball as a young lad growing up on the mean streets of O'Fallon, MO. He moved away to Tulsa to attend Bible College, where he met his wife, who talked him into moving to Cedar Rapids, Iowa, also known as the Bermuda triangle of baseball. His dream is to see the MLB.tv blackouts end, and his other interests are theology and philosophy of religion. He is the parent of two young boys.

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