There’s been a decent amount of discussion regarding Brendan Ryan’s offense and his early season slump.  With that in mind I wanted to frame the discussion a little bit on what would be required for him to be an average MLBer (2 WAR) or do what he did last year (3 WAR).  For the playing time portions of WAR I assumed 625 PAs which would be abut 150 games started.  With that in mind, here’s a visual representation

The interpretation is simply that the lines give pairs of wOBA and defensive runs saved above average (DRAA, think his UZR value) that correspond to 2 and 3 WAR. For example, if Boog were to have a 0.290 wOBA (think Joe Thurston) he’d need to save a little over ten runs (13) to be average and 23 to be 3 WAR. Raw data can be found here if you want the exact numbers.

In order to put the number in additional context I added lines for 2009 performance, getting the following

This shows that a performance like last seasons, over a full season would generate well over 3 WAR. Finally a chart with some projections on it.

The defensive projection is my own, and the offense if from CHONE’s preseason projection. I think all these charts show that because he plays a premium position, and plays it very well, the bar for his offense is pretty low. Can it continue at it’s current pace, clearly not, but even if he “reaches” Joe Thurston levels Ryan will be a valuable asset.

Steve Sommer

Simulation analyst by day, father and baseball nerd by night

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