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So far Ryan Ludwick’s bat (~0.400 wOBA) and glove (1-3 runs saved depending on your advanced metric of choice) have been good. His base running, not so much. Last night the change in run expectancy for his pickoff was -0.86, so he cost the team almost an entire run. On the season as a whole, entering last night he was “worth” -1.2 runs on the bases (stolen base runs removed from the calculations). Is this likely to continue? Probably not, the last two years Luddy has been worth 2-3 runs on the bases. That brings us to our chart for the day. Here’s the last 3 years of EQBRR (with stolen base runs removed) from Baseball Prospectus

NAME 2009 2009 Opps 2008 2008 Opps 2007 2007 Opps
Colby Rasmus 5.16 298 0 0 0 0
Skip Schumaker 2.78 550 1.4 540 -1.34 146
Ryan Ludwick 1.9 352 2.91 432 -2.26 212
Brendan Ryan 2.01 356 1.47 200 1.66 155
Matt Holliday 0.09 451 5.49 479 2.58 612
Albert Pujols -0.62 477 -0.09 442 0.52 513
Yadier Molina -5.14 390 -3.93 303 -1.63 281

And as a bonus, here’s the updated Series Probabilities chart

Steve Sommer

Simulation analyst by day, father and baseball nerd by night

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