Coming off of yet another series win,the Cards prepare for a 3 game tilt against the Giants starting Friday night.  Unfortunately Wellemeyer just pitched last night, so the Cards won’t have an opportunity to rough up an old friend.  So far this year the Giants are 8-7, but have a 10-5 pythagorean record.  This should be a tough series as the Cards will see both Lincecum and Cain.  On to the inputs for the simulation, first a representative Cards lineup

Name wOBA DEF/150 RC/Game
Skip Schumaker 0.335 -5 0.586152
Ryan Ludwick 0.356 1 0.650075
Albert Pujols 0.431 5 0.925749
Matt Holliday 0.39 6.5 0.751876
Colby Rasmus 0.343 5.5 0.56356
Yadier Molina 0.329 8 0.499789
David Freese 0.34 0 0.523898
Brendan Ryan 0.31 7 0.415002
Pitcher 0.2 0 0.04807
per game total 0.186667 4.964171

and then the same for the Giants

Name wOBA DEF/150 RC/Game
Aaron Rowand 0.323 -1 0.539323
Edgar Renteria 0.317 -3 0.501985
Pablo Sandoval 0.385 0 0.752782
Aubrey Huff 0.336 -3 0.554014
Mark DeRosa 0.335 0 0.535061
Bengie Molina 0.311 -2.5 0.437402
John Bowker 0.35 3 0.557654
Juan Uribe 0.314 -2 0.428261
Pitcher 0.2 0 0.04807
per game total -0.05667 4.354552

and then the Cards pitchers

Starter Starter ERA IP/GS Bullpen ERA
Game 1 Jaime Garcia 4.45 5.66 3.7
Game 2 Adam Wainwright 3.53 7 3.7
Game 3 Brad Penny 4.11 5.66 3.7

and Giants

Starter Starter ERA IP/GS Bullpen ERA
Game 1 Tim Lincecum 3.12 7 3.6
Game 2 Barry Zito 4.85 6 3.6
Game 3 Matt Cain 3.93 6.6 3.6

Quick summary, the Cards have the position player edge, both offensively and defensively. The Giants have the edge on the mound, although that edge is smaller than the offense edge the Birds have. What does the sim say?

Again the Cards are projected to take 2 of 3. Most likely way to get there is losing the opener to Timmy and then winning the next two (the third is a virtual coin flip). All in all I think the Birds would definitely be happy winning 2 of 3.

Steve Sommer

Simulation analyst by day, father and baseball nerd by night

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4 Responses to “Series Preview Cards at Giants”

  1. Steve, these previews are pretty slick…

    Needless to say, I have more confidence in Jaime than the simulation does. ;)

    • Thanks Nick. Yeah it’s actually the confidence that CHONE has in him :) Probably in an iteration or two I’ll start updating the projections myself to at least lightly weight the current year information.

  2. Can they win the first two games please? I will be at those games…

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