Coming off of yet another series win,the Cards prepare for a 3 game tilt against the Giants starting Friday night. Unfortunately Wellemeyer just pitched last night, so the Cards won’t have an opportunity to rough up an old friend. So far this year the Giants are 8-7, but have a 10-5 pythagorean record. This should be a tough series as the Cards will see both Lincecum and Cain. On to the inputs for the simulation, first a representative Cards lineup
| Name | wOBA | DEF/150 | RC/Game |
| Skip Schumaker | 0.335 | -5 | 0.586152 |
| Ryan Ludwick | 0.356 | 1 | 0.650075 |
| Albert Pujols | 0.431 | 5 | 0.925749 |
| Matt Holliday | 0.39 | 6.5 | 0.751876 |
| Colby Rasmus | 0.343 | 5.5 | 0.56356 |
| Yadier Molina | 0.329 | 8 | 0.499789 |
| David Freese | 0.34 | 0 | 0.523898 |
| Brendan Ryan | 0.31 | 7 | 0.415002 |
| Pitcher | 0.2 | 0 | 0.04807 |
| per game total | 0.186667 | 4.964171 |
and then the same for the Giants
| Name | wOBA | DEF/150 | RC/Game |
| Aaron Rowand | 0.323 | -1 | 0.539323 |
| Edgar Renteria | 0.317 | -3 | 0.501985 |
| Pablo Sandoval | 0.385 | 0 | 0.752782 |
| Aubrey Huff | 0.336 | -3 | 0.554014 |
| Mark DeRosa | 0.335 | 0 | 0.535061 |
| Bengie Molina | 0.311 | -2.5 | 0.437402 |
| John Bowker | 0.35 | 3 | 0.557654 |
| Juan Uribe | 0.314 | -2 | 0.428261 |
| Pitcher | 0.2 | 0 | 0.04807 |
| per game total | -0.05667 | 4.354552 |
and then the Cards pitchers
| Starter | Starter ERA | IP/GS | Bullpen ERA | |
| Game 1 | Jaime Garcia | 4.45 | 5.66 | 3.7 |
| Game 2 | Adam Wainwright | 3.53 | 7 | 3.7 |
| Game 3 | Brad Penny | 4.11 | 5.66 | 3.7 |
and Giants
| Starter | Starter ERA | IP/GS | Bullpen ERA | |
| Game 1 | Tim Lincecum | 3.12 | 7 | 3.6 |
| Game 2 | Barry Zito | 4.85 | 6 | 3.6 |
| Game 3 | Matt Cain | 3.93 | 6.6 | 3.6 |
Quick summary, the Cards have the position player edge, both offensively and defensively. The Giants have the edge on the mound, although that edge is smaller than the offense edge the Birds have. What does the sim say?
Again the Cards are projected to take 2 of 3. Most likely way to get there is losing the opener to Timmy and then winning the next two (the third is a virtual coin flip). All in all I think the Birds would definitely be happy winning 2 of 3.
Steve, these previews are pretty slick…
Needless to say, I have more confidence in Jaime than the simulation does.
Thanks Nick. Yeah it’s actually the confidence that CHONE has in him
Probably in an iteration or two I’ll start updating the projections myself to at least lightly weight the current year information.
Can they win the first two games please? I will be at those games…