The Cards, coming off of their first series loss of the year, return home to face a Braves team that is scuffling more than I would have expected before the season began. The Braves are 8-10 and have a pythagorean record of 8-10 as well. So how do the two teams stack up according to the pre-season projections. First lineups, with the Cards first
| Name | wOBA | DEF/150 | RC/Game |
| Skip Schumaker | 0.335 | -5 | 0.586152 |
| Ryan Ludwick | 0.356 | 1 | 0.650075 |
| Albert Pujols | 0.431 | 5 | 0.925749 |
| Matt Holliday | 0.39 | 6.5 | 0.751876 |
| Colby Rasmus | 0.343 | 5.5 | 0.56356 |
| Yadier Molina | 0.329 | 8 | 0.499789 |
| David Freese | 0.34 | 0 | 0.523898 |
| Brendan Ryan | 0.31 | 7 | 0.415002 |
| Pitcher | 0.2 | 0 | 0.04807 |
| Game Totals | 0.187 | 4.964171 |
and the Braves
| Name | wOBA | DEF/150 | RC/Game |
| Melky Cabrera | 0.33 | 3 | 0.56664 |
| Martin Prado | 0.351 | -2 | 0.631089 |
| Chipper Jones | 0.377 | -3 | 0.722701 |
| Brian McCann | 0.373 | -3 | 0.689586 |
| Troy Glaus | 0.356 | 0 | 0.60987 |
| Yunel Escobar | 0.352 | 1 | 0.579506 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.345 | 5 | 0.540776 |
| Nate McLouth | 0.355 | -4 | 0.564164 |
| Pitcher | 0.2 | 0 | 0.04807 |
| Game Totals | -0.02 | 4.952402 |
I diverged a little from CHONE for the Braves. CHONE was a major outlier for Melky Cabrera, so I went with the next highest projection. For Jason Heyward, I went above and beyond the projections and projected him similar to Rasmus’ pre-season projection. Quibble if you like.
The Card’s pitchers
| Starter | Starter ERA | IP/GS | Bullpen ERA | |
| Game 1 | Kyle Lohse | 4.18 | 5.33 | 3.7 |
| Game 2 | Chris Carpenter | 3.1 | 7 | 3.7 |
| Game 3 | Jaime Garcia | 4.45 | 5.66 | 3.7 |
| Game 4 | Adam Wainwright | 3.53 | 7 | 3.7 |
and the Braves
| Starter | Starter ERA | IP/GS | Bullpen ERA | |
| Game 1 | Tim Hudson | 3.95 | 6 | 3.25 |
| Game 2 | Derek Lowe | 4.07 | 6 | 3.25 |
| Game 3 | Kenshin Kawakami | 4.44 | 6.66 | 3.25 |
| Game 4 | Jair Jurrjens | 3.77 | 6.33 | 3.25 |
Runs Allowed (combining pitching and defense) for the Cards
| RA | |
| Game 1 | 4.144058 |
| Game 2 | 3.327826 |
| Game 3 | 4.347754 |
| Game 4 | 3.691353 |
and the Braves
| RA | |
| Game 1 | 4.059855 |
| Game 2 | 4.146812 |
| Game 3 | 4.509783 |
| Game 4 | 3.950145 |
it appears that the teams are fairly even on the offensive side, but the Cards have an advantage in run prevention. It helps that the Cards have such a decided edge defensively.
and then finally the results of the sim
A split is most likely, but if someone is going to win the series, then it should be the Birds on the Bat.
