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The Cards, coming off of their first series loss of the year, return home to face a Braves team that is scuffling more than I would have expected before the season began.  The Braves are 8-10 and have a pythagorean record of 8-10 as well.  So how do the two teams stack up according to the pre-season projections.  First lineups, with the Cards first

Name wOBA DEF/150 RC/Game
Skip Schumaker 0.335 -5 0.586152
Ryan Ludwick 0.356 1 0.650075
Albert Pujols 0.431 5 0.925749
Matt Holliday 0.39 6.5 0.751876
Colby Rasmus 0.343 5.5 0.56356
Yadier Molina 0.329 8 0.499789
David Freese 0.34 0 0.523898
Brendan Ryan 0.31 7 0.415002
Pitcher 0.2 0 0.04807
Game Totals 0.187 4.964171

and the Braves

Name wOBA DEF/150 RC/Game
Melky Cabrera 0.33 3 0.56664
Martin Prado 0.351 -2 0.631089
Chipper Jones 0.377 -3 0.722701
Brian McCann 0.373 -3 0.689586
Troy Glaus 0.356 0 0.60987
Yunel Escobar 0.352 1 0.579506
Jason Heyward 0.345 5 0.540776
Nate McLouth 0.355 -4 0.564164
Pitcher 0.2 0 0.04807
Game Totals -0.02 4.952402

I diverged a little from CHONE for the Braves.  CHONE was a major outlier for Melky Cabrera, so I went with the next highest projection.  For Jason Heyward, I went above and beyond the projections and projected him similar to Rasmus’ pre-season projection.  Quibble if you like.

The Card’s pitchers

Starter Starter ERA IP/GS Bullpen ERA
Game 1 Kyle Lohse 4.18 5.33 3.7
Game 2 Chris Carpenter 3.1 7 3.7
Game 3 Jaime Garcia 4.45 5.66 3.7
Game 4 Adam Wainwright 3.53 7 3.7

and the Braves

Starter Starter ERA IP/GS Bullpen ERA
Game 1 Tim Hudson 3.95 6 3.25
Game 2 Derek Lowe 4.07 6 3.25
Game 3 Kenshin Kawakami 4.44 6.66 3.25
Game 4 Jair Jurrjens 3.77 6.33 3.25

Runs Allowed (combining pitching and defense) for the Cards

RA
Game 1 4.144058
Game 2 3.327826
Game 3 4.347754
Game 4 3.691353

and the Braves

RA
Game 1 4.059855
Game 2 4.146812
Game 3 4.509783
Game 4 3.950145

it appears that the teams are fairly even on the offensive side, but the Cards have an advantage in run prevention. It helps that the Cards have such a decided edge defensively.

and then finally the results of the sim

A split is most likely, but if someone is going to win the series, then it should be the Birds on the Bat.

Steve Sommer

Simulation analyst by day, father and baseball nerd by night

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