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Note:  Be sure to check out Erik’s questions with Phillies’ blogger Bill Baer in the previous post.

The Cards won yet another series over the weekend, as they should have.  Next up on the docket is one of the teams that a lot of people (both mainstream and saberists) placed not only at the top of their division, but the top of the league: the Phillies.  The Phillies sit at 14-10 with a pythag of 15-9 and are 6th in BtB’s power rankings.  It should be one of the tougher (if not the toughest) series to date for the Birds.  Let’s look at how the teams stack up.

(Methodology)

Name wOBA DEF/150 RC/Game
1 Skip Schumaker 0.332 -5 0.573
2 Ryan Ludwick 0.357 1 0.653
3 Albert Pujols 0.432 5 0.928
4 Matt Holliday 0.388 6.5 0.745
5 Colby Rasmus 0.350 5.5 0.587
6 Yadier Molina 0.327 8 0.494
7 David Freese 0.347 0 0.548
8 Brendan Ryan 0.306 7 0.402
9 Pitcher 0.200 0 0.048
Game Totals 0.19 4.978

You’ll note that Colby’s wOBA slid a little from last series while Freese’s has increased. Those two are the most likely to fluctuate with the updates as they have the lowest number of previous PAs.

Name wOBA DEF/150 RC/Game
1 Shane Victorino 0.344 1.5 0.620
2 Placido Polanco 0.337 6 0.578
3 Chase Utley 0.394 11 0.786
4 Ryan Howard 0.385 0 0.732
5 Jayson Werth 0.376 11 0.680
6 Raul Ibanez 0.353 -5.5 0.583
7 Carlos Ruiz 0.328 2 0.484
8 Juan Castro 0.261 -4 0.254
9 Pitcher 0.200 0 0.048
Game Totals 0.15 4.764

Thankfully for the Cards, Jimmy Rollins is injured as that tips the lineups and defense in favor of the Cards.

Starter Starter ERA IP/GS Bullpen ERA
Game 1 Jaime Garcia 4.34 5.66 3.7
Game 2 Adam Wainwright 3.53 7 3.7
Game 3 Brad Penny 4.11 5.66 3.7
Game 4 Kyle Lohse 4.21 5.33 3.7

Garcia is similar to Freese and Rasmus as his current IPs are going to be more heavily weighted because of lack of prior experience.

Starter Starter ERA IP/GS Bullpen ERA
Game 1 Joe Blanton 4.19 6.33 3.8
Game 2 Cole Hamels 3.83 6 3.8
Game 3 Kyle Kendrick 4.86 5 3.8
Game 4 Roy Halladay 3.24 7.66 3.8

Yep, Roy really is a horse.  I think he may even be undervalued in the above projection.  Either way he’ll likely not be handing the ball over to the bullpen for very many innings.

Here’s the runs allowed (combining pitching and defense)

Game 1 Game 2 Game 3 Game 4
Cards 4.27 3.69 4.11 4.16
Phils 4.21 3.94 4.56 3.40

Add all that up and you get the following chart of outcomes

So the Cards win the series about 29% of the time, lose it about 35% of the time, and split the rest.  If the Phils had Jimmy Rollins, those numbers would look more like winning 23% and losing 41%.  Let’s take advantage of them while we can!

Steve Sommer

Simulation analyst by day, father and baseball nerd by night

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