After getting back on their feet against the Pirates, th Birds enter another series that they should win.  The Astros are simply not good.  They currently have a pythag record of 8-23 and only have one regular with an above average wOBA. With that said let’s see what the updated version of the projections say.  For this preview I thought I would put aside the tables for some graphs (taking my inspiration from the one Justin Bopp did for my BtB series preview).  Let me know if ya’ll like these better.

First the offenses (remember these are projection based)

Clearly the Cards have the offensive edge.  Of note, the Astros are 32 runs created worse than the second to last place Mariners, which almost mirrors the gap between the Cards and Yankees (36 runs created) who are 2nd in the Majors behind the Brewers.  Basically the Astros have been dreadfull offensively and don’t project much better.

Now for the D

The Cards have the edge here too, riding Brendan Ryan and Mat Holliday being substantially better than their counterparts (Yadi doesn’t hurt either)

And finally the pitching

Wandy Rodriguez gives the Astros the edge at SP2, but the Cards hold the edge in the other two games and the bullpen.  So how does all of this add up?

The Cards should win the series around 70% of the time.

Steve Sommer

Simulation analyst by day, father and baseball nerd by night

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2 Responses to “Series Preview Astros at Cardinals”

  1. So we have a better defense even with the Ghost of David Freese at 3B? Awesome. How much do the stats change when Freese’s Def/150 is added?

    • Freese is on there, it’s just that his pre-season CHONE projection had him at 0 and I haven’t updated the defensive projections.

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