There has been a lot of angst in the Cardinal blogosphere and twitter-verse over the peculiar roster decisions (most notably the veteran heavy bench) made by the Cardinals so far. I thought it would be a good idea to put some numbers behind that angst and see what the theoretical impact actually is. To do that I used the updated CHONE projections and calculated the edge in both offensive and defensive runs/game. Combining the two and taking the difference between the current situation and the public’s ideal situation yields the following table
|Roster Move||Runs / Game|
|Stav over Craig||0.09|
|Winn over Jay||0.05|
|Miles over Greene||0.09|
The way to read the chart is that for every time the noted player starts over the other it costs the Cards X theoretical runs/start. Add that up over the number of times it is likely to happen over the course of the year and you’ll get a theoretical “runs lost” for the duration. As an example, every game that Miles starts over Greene costs the Cards 0.09 runs; over 10 starts that would be about a run total.
My reaction is it’s not as big as everyone thinks it is, but it’s still enough to warrant making the appropriate changes. Just as an example if you give each of these 30 games for the rest of the year (which I’d consider high) it comes out to about 0.7 wins.