There’s been a lot of discussion/arguing about hitting mechanics and their relationship with success over at VEB recently. The sabremetric crowd (of which I am clearly included) has proposed a number of different analytical studies to “test” and find the order of magnitude associated with the up to date hitting theories. I figured I’d outline here what I’m specifically proposing.
Where the variables are coded 1 if the player has the flaw and 0 if he does not. If the grader wanted a “sometimes” choice I’d guess we could work that in. The overall grade is a scouting grade on swing mechanics. I’d probably look at multiple response variables including but not limited to wOBA, ISO (or some other power metric), BA, etc. I wouldn’t want it to be a swing by swing results analysis, rather a generalized season level look.
I’d let experts identify which flaws were important enough to code in.
So where are the pitfalls? One big assumption is that the swing is reasonably stable over a season. I’d want the grader to look at swings from a few time frames to vet this assumption some. Clearly there could be some results bias too. The grader would have to try and not let a players results factor into the grading (especially the overall category).
EDIT: Posted a little prematurely, but ya’ll get the idea I think. Ideally this would be multi-year too, so as to do a WOWY if possible.