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Over in the comments at VEB I posted a notional chart that attempts to illustrate the “there’s no such thing as a pitching prospect” adage.  The basic idea behind the chart is that pitching prospects will have a lot more variance in their projection that would hitters.  This additional variance leads to a lower mean projection if you want to assume that two players have the same peak and same peak probabilities (i.e. both have the potential to be 6 WAR players).  Here’s the chart I used to illustrate my point (the values are completely notional)

In this case the red is the position player and the blue is the pitcher.

Steve Sommer

Simulation analyst by day, father and baseball nerd by night

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2 Responses to “Pitching Prospects”

  1. Does the curve for Hellickson extend into negative WAR?

    • yeah it did. It’s not likely, and should probably be accounted for somehow (or maybe it’s real, and the p(negative WAR) is the never really makes it for an extended period of time.

      It was purely a hypothetical, and I pulled the number out of nowhere.

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