Thanks for the response.

Reds – Gotta figure they will regress. Gomes will not repeat the same season. Rolen won’t stay healthy, and you just don’t want Cairo playing 3B every day. Renteria won’t stay healthy, but Janish is probably better. Phillips will likely have a better year than last, and Stubbs/Bruce still haven’t achieved their ceiling. Can’t see Votto repeating. He had one heck of a season last year. The guy is very talented, but those were incredible numbers. Their rotation may be deep, but do they really scare you? It’s not like they can throw a Waino, Carp, Garcia or Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum at you in a three game set. Volquez and Cueto can deal, but they also kill themselves with too many baserunners.

Brewers – Have to have the fewest question marks of the big 3. Can they trust Axford for a whole season to anchor the pen? He was a bit shaky down the stretch last year. Marcum has to stay healthy. Gallardo needs to allow fewer baserunners. Braun and Fielder both had “down” years for their standards last year, so you can probably expect them to return to form. Can Rickie Weeks stay healthy for an entire year again? I wouldn’t put money on it. What can you expect from Corey Hart? He was hot early last year, but cooled off quite a bit.

Cards – Have to have the most questions marks. Can Freese stay healthy? What can you expect from Theriot? Will Skip bounce back? Is Colby-gate a thing of the past? Can Berkman stay healthy and cover more than 10 square feet of RF? Will Carp stay healthy? Was Waino’s elbow issue just a minor issue for last year or will it carry over? Will Garcia repeat? If the Cards get a positive on most or all of these, then they probably will the Central, but what are the odds of that happening?

Cubs – I just don’t see how adding Garza and replacing DLee with Pena changes that team much. Zambrano is one second from another blow-up. I just don’t see how they have a chance to compete unless the Reds, Brewers, and Cards all underachieve.

I think you can pretty much flip a coin between the top 3. I think Erik is right. It’s so close, whoever has the fewest injuries will win the division.