In my recent research endeavors I’ve been looking at some more historical things related to the Cardinals.  One offshoot was taking a quick look at the relationship between the various actual records and Pythagorean records.  The following is a quick synopsis of what I found.  First, how did the two records relate on a yearly basis.  The following chart summarizes

Looking at the largest differences:

The “luckiest” (if you assume all the difference was luck) teams were 1917 and 1936 with a 10 win difference.  The “luckiest” modern team was 2007.

The “unluckiest” were 1924 and 1980 with an 11 and 10 win difference.  2010 was 11th all time at -5.

I’m not certain how much of those differences to parse between luck and other things, but with that said I offer the following table without further comment

Manager Total “Luck” Seasons
Whitey Herzog 16 10
Joe Torre 12 5
Miller Huggins 9 5
Frankie Frisch 8 5
Billy Southworth 7 6
Red Schoendienst 2 12
Tony LaRussa 2 15
Eddie Dyer 0 5
Charlie Comiskey -3 6
Branch Rickey -18 7


Completely unrelated, but Future Redbirds just finished running through their top 20 prospects.  Head over there and check it out.

Steve Sommer

Simulation analyst by day, father and baseball nerd by night

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