Comments on: Albert, Aging, and History http://gashousegraphs.com/2011/02/14/albert-aging-and-history/ Sun, 19 May 2013 03:52:38 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.5.1 By: Rationalizing the Next Pujols Contract | Community – FanGraphs Baseball http://gashousegraphs.com/2011/02/14/albert-aging-and-history/#comment-503 Rationalizing the Next Pujols Contract | Community – FanGraphs Baseball Wed, 16 Feb 2011 15:01:50 +0000 http://gashousegraphs.com/?p=2647#comment-503 [...] about what Albert Pujols’ value will be over the next 7-10 years, I suggest you go here…Or here…Or here…Or take a look at the discussion here. Haven’t had enough? Read [...]

]]> By: Steve Sommer http://gashousegraphs.com/2011/02/14/albert-aging-and-history/#comment-501 Steve Sommer Wed, 16 Feb 2011 03:14:03 +0000 http://gashousegraphs.com/?p=2647#comment-501 Don’t disagree. That’s why I showed some extra data points.

]]> By: Steve Sommer http://gashousegraphs.com/2011/02/14/albert-aging-and-history/#comment-500 Steve Sommer Wed, 16 Feb 2011 03:13:30 +0000 http://gashousegraphs.com/?p=2647#comment-500 Which makes sense since AP is probably generally better than the populations used as comparisons as Jim points out.

]]> By: Pitchers and catchers have reported… so let’s talk about Albert Pujols | Rooftop View http://gashousegraphs.com/2011/02/14/albert-aging-and-history/#comment-496 Pitchers and catchers have reported… so let’s talk about Albert Pujols | Rooftop View Tue, 15 Feb 2011 21:25:48 +0000 http://gashousegraphs.com/?p=2647#comment-496 [...] years, $267 million Tango gets $225 million over 7 years and up to $265 million over 10 years. Steve Sommer shows you can probably expect about 40 WAR from Pujols over 10 years, but 8 years is probably the [...]

]]> By: UCB: WARGAMING THE PUJOLS SITUATION | EL MAQUINO http://gashousegraphs.com/2011/02/14/albert-aging-and-history/#comment-495 UCB: WARGAMING THE PUJOLS SITUATION | EL MAQUINO Tue, 15 Feb 2011 06:01:20 +0000 http://gashousegraphs.com/?p=2647#comment-495 [...] an expected AAV between $26-30 million. Today at Gas House Graphs, Steve posted an article entitled Albert, Aging, and History in which he included players similar to Pujols in Wins Above Replacement (refer to FanGraphs’ [...]

]]> By: Jim P http://gashousegraphs.com/2011/02/14/albert-aging-and-history/#comment-493 Jim P Mon, 14 Feb 2011 19:54:44 +0000 http://gashousegraphs.com/?p=2647#comment-493 The talent/accomplishments curve is not symmetrical around Pujols’ level, so there would be more players who are similar but worse than who are similar but better, so it may be the case that the expectation for Pujols is closer to the 75th percentile than the 50th percentile.

]]> By: Jeff http://gashousegraphs.com/2011/02/14/albert-aging-and-history/#comment-492 Jeff Mon, 14 Feb 2011 19:49:03 +0000 http://gashousegraphs.com/?p=2647#comment-492 Here’s what Wall Street Journal had to say:

Using a standard aging curve, Mr. Pujols is expected to produce about 48 WAR over the next 10 years, and estimating future salary inflation at 5% a year, those wins would be worth $286 million.

That would put him just under your 75th percentile for 10 years. I’m sure they kept it pretty simple, but it is interesting none the less.

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