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Mark Teixeira

Image via Wikipedia

Tango addresses a trade idea that Ken Rosenthal suggest.  I think makes a decent amount of sense, with a huge caveat. Take this post with a grain of salt, this basically is just me thinking out loud.

Albert Pujols, in 2011, is playing at a discount.  A deep discount.  Albert Pujols, from 2012 to whenever he retires, will sign a fair market-value contract.  He’s worth 250MM$, and his mortgage will be for 250MM$ (or 225/225, or whatever he will sign for).

Mark Teixeira is overpaid by about 30MM$.  Though you can construct a reasonable case that makes Teixeira properly paid.  He’s got a 135MM$ mortgage on a property worth 135MM$.  Maybe.

Ryan Howard? Forget it.  He’s hugely overpaid.

Pujols for Teix?  Even if it makes sense from 2012-onward, Pujols in 2011 is playing at a huge discount.  The Yankees will have to fork over alot more than just Teix.  And Teix cannot ask for a contract extension either.  That would really tilt things way over to the Yankees side.

Hmmm…color me intrigued IF the Cardinals get a load of prospects. Say the Cardinals are at an insurmountable impasse with Albert. Teixeira is owed $22.5 annually in 2011-2016.  His surplus value is nada, in fact using Sky’s trade value calculator here is what we get:

(Someone feel free to correct me if I’m behind the times on any of this stuff, my saber-fu is rusty these days.)

Here’s what we get for Albert-

So the Yankees would have to kick in quite a lot. As in a lot alot. Others and myself have done work on finding out what prospect surplus values are. Here is the Yankees Top 20 prospects per John Sickels.  I’d ask for Montero, Joba (sure, why not?) and Banuelos or Betances, and see if I couldn’t get more.

The problem with this scenario is that the Cardinals would have to hope for a great year from Teixeira in order to compete with Milwaukee and Cincinnati. But at least they’d be set at first base long-term with Teixeira, plus they’d get some nifty prospects to boot. Considering the seemingly short-sighted decisions from the front office, this would be encouraging.

The elephant in the room is that Pujols has said that he’d exercise his no trade rights as a 10/5 player. But you’d have to think that if he had no hope of coming back to St. Louis, he’d go to the team that is certain to give him what he wants. Plus he can play in New York, for the Yankees, the team of great history, mystique, tradition and chase all those famous ghosts and all those other things that make us Midwestern people sick.

So Pujols for Teixeira…good idea, bad idea? Got any other ideas?

Albertageddon is upon us.

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Erik Manning

Erik became addicted to Cardinals baseball as a young lad growing up on the mean streets of O'Fallon, MO. He moved away to Tulsa to attend Bible College, where he met his wife, who talked him into moving to Cedar Rapids, Iowa, also known as the Bermuda triangle of baseball. His dream is to see the MLB.tv blackouts end, and his other interests are theology and philosophy of religion. He is the parent of two young boys.

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5 Responses to “An unlikely blockbuster: Pujols for Teixeira”

  1. Surprised how many people actually took Rosenthal’s suggestion seriously. I thought he was just bored and slammed something up, but it looks like some think it’s a legit idea.

    Of course, nothing else is going on…

  2. If we assume some inflation, then Tex probably has a little more value than the chart gives him… say 10M or so at 5% inflation. I’d be comfortable bracketing his worth between 105-115. Doesn’t change the conclusion too much either way.

    All in all if they got the deal you proposed I wouldn’t be too upset. It sorta depends on how close we grade out to the Reds…. those 1.5-3 wins we lose immediately (depending on Joba or whomever would also play in MLB) would greatly impact the playoff probabilities for this year when we’re likely in an ok position in wins (mid to high 80s).

  3. It goes without saying that Teixeira, as the owner of a no-trade clause, would also want some compensation from the Cardinals (or Yankees) in exchange for agreeing to a trade. This would likely mean additional years and dollars (think 2/50) when he’s liable not to be worth it. This, in my opinion, means we would have to get even more from the Yankees in order to justify this move.

  4. “Albertageddon” ? Nice.

  5. If you use Total Zone instead of UZR, Tex should start from 6 WAR. Use that and increase win value by 10% a year, and Tex is not overpaid. And Yankees would probably kick in some money, rather than prospects.
    If Cards end up trading Pujols, look at Santana and A-Rod trades for type of return in talent.

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