Warning: Illegal string offset 'status_txt' in /home/gashou5/public_html/wp-content/plugins/share-and-follow/share-and-follow.php on line 1243

Warning: Illegal string offset 'status_txt' in /home/gashou5/public_html/wp-content/plugins/share-and-follow/share-and-follow.php on line 1243

Warning: Illegal string offset 'status_txt' in /home/gashou5/public_html/wp-content/plugins/share-and-follow/share-and-follow.php on line 1243

Warning: Illegal string offset 'status_txt' in /home/gashou5/public_html/wp-content/plugins/share-and-follow/share-and-follow.php on line 1243

Warning: Illegal string offset 'status_txt' in /home/gashou5/public_html/wp-content/plugins/share-and-follow/share-and-follow.php on line 1243

Andy already wrote up a summary of the reactions and analysis in the blogosphere on the Wainwright injury.  Check out his piece and the pieces he links to get a good feel for how the sabermetric community is viewing the injury.  With that said while there has been some analysis done on possible replacements/replacement scenarios, I figured I’d throw my 2 cents in as well.  This first piece will look at the internal candidates.  I limited the look to three options: Bryan Augenstein, Lance Lynn, and Kyle McClellan (you could argue PJ Walters, but he projects worse than Lynn and is therefore uninteresting analytically).  The following table summarizes each pitchers respective ZIPs and PECOTA projections

Zips ERA Zips WAR PECOTA ERA PECOTA WAR
Bryan Augenstein 4.35 2.05 4.92 1.01
Lance Lynn 4.87 1.1 4.39 1.97
Kyle McClellan (St) 4.58 1.43 4.75 1.12

The projection for McClellan is his reliever ERA + 1 (ref this post).  WAR assumes 160 IP.

That’s not the end of the story however; as shifting McClellan to the rotation has an impact on the bullpen as well, so this table is of interest also

Zips ERA Zips WAR PECOTA ERA PECOTA WAR
Fernando Salas 3.79 1.08 3.86 1.01
Kyle McClellan (Re) 3.58 1.33 3.75 1.13

Now we have to combine those two pieces of data to see which course of action has the best WAR. Additionally we have to account for the remaining 50 or so starters innings to get from a number of 210 IP to the 160 I have allotted to these guys. It is assumed that the other 50 would be filled by the next best option of Lynn or Augenstein. That COAs look about like:

Zips WAR PECOTA WAR Avg WAR
Bryan Augenstein 3.7 2.8 3.2
Lance Lynn 3.1 3.5 3.3
Kyle McClellan 3.2 2.7 2.9

WAR represented is the 5th starter spot plus the one reliever slot (modeled at a Leverage Index of 1.4 at 75 innings)

Using the projections as stated above, it appears that the best COA would be to use Lynn as the 5th starter, with Augenstein as a fill in if need be.  That said the numbers are pretty close all the way around, so if you think McClellan could hold his stamina better than the normal reliever making this switch (and thus not losing the 1 run of ERA) then any option is probably pretty close.

Steve Sommer

Simulation analyst by day, father and baseball nerd by night

More Posts - Twitter

2 Responses to “The Internal Options”

  1. I want to see McClellan win the job b/c I think it’s time we found out if he can do the job. Learning some more about McClellan is worth the potential 0.4 WAR hit we’re going to get. Let Lynn get more experience in AAA and he can be the first fill-in when either Carp, Lohse, or Westbrook hits the DL.

    • I’d be fine with that. I’d also be fine with Lynn taking the job too… Both are likely ok options, and neither is probably head and shoulders better than the other as the analysis indicates. All options will probably get some starts along the line anyway.

Leave a Reply

(required)

(required)

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

© 2011 Gas House Graphs Suffusion theme by Sayontan Sinha