I must admit I only caught a little bit of the game between work and then chasing after the little guy, so I’m only going on numbers until I watch the DVR’ed copy later tonight.  First the WPa chart courtesy of Fangraphs

Link to page

A game the Cardinals seemed to dominate fell the other way, not the way you want to begin the season.

The Good:

Matt Holliday’s home run 0.305 WPA

Trever Miller getting Brad Hawpe to fly out 0.139 WPA

The Bad:

Albert Pujols grounding into a DP in the 10th -0.167 WPA

Matt Holliday’s caught stealing in the -0.124 WPA

The Ugly:

Brian Augenstein giving up the single to Maybin in the 11th and Theriot committing an error -0.407 WPA

Ryan Franklin giving up a home run to Maybin in the ninth -0.368 WPA

Albert Pujols’ combined WPA of -0.429

 

Commentary:

On the bright side, Albert Pujols will likely not have another game like that until he’s in the last year of the ten year deal some team is going to give him.  Interestingly we had the first Kyle McClellan bullpen outing and it went to Miguel Batista, not surprising given Tony’s love for the proven vet, but not a good sign of things to come either.  Franklin worries me independent of the results, but we’ll clearly give him a few more outings before we analyze anything there.

 

Pitch FX portion of the program

Carp’s fastball velocity was about right where it should be compared to last year given that it’s the first start of the year.  The following table summarizes

Year + 1 SD AVG - 1 SD
2010 92.7 91.5 90.2
2011 91.9 91.0 90.2

 
I’ll be trying to get as many of these game recaps up as I can throughout the season (maybe with the help of the rest of the guys). Clearly once we start to develop some sample sizes I’ll start to do more analysis.

 

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Steve Sommer

Simulation analyst by day, father and baseball nerd by night

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2 Responses to “Game 1 Analytics”

  1. I know it’s just one game, but today does not give me a warm fuzzy feeling. Seems today was an awful lot like the 2nd half of 2010 for the Redbirds. The offenses managed to get good number of baserunners on, but could not string together hits. Baserunning was poor again (see Holliday’s blunder). Poor defense and mental lapses in the field (Skip and Theriot). Shaky bullpen (Franklin fooled no one and the pen narrowly escaped a jam in the 8th). While none of these directly cost the Cardinals the win today, but lump them together and they did. The worst part is these are the exact same things that resulted in the Cardinals underachieving last year, IMO.

    • Defense and the bullpen bother me too; unfortunately I see no reprieve from the bad middle infield defense.

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