FanGraphs‘ win probability graphs for games five and six:

Game Five:

Link to page
I don’t have time to go through the good, the bad, and the impressive for yesterday’s win, but I’ll offer some quick commentary:

  • Clearly, that was an impressive debut in the rotation for Kyle McClellan. Not only did he settle down after giving up two first inning runs, but he added 7 K’s and 1 BB. With that said, it seemed like he left a bunch of pitches over the heart of the plate, especially early… so it’ll be interesting to see how his season unfolds.
  • Pujols led the team with .221 WPA (1-2, 1 BB, 2 RBI). Unfortunately, one of those RBIs came on a ground ball through the left side; a foot in either direction, and it could have easily been another inning ending double play.

Game Six:

Link to page

Again, bullet-point commentary:

  • Again, the offense takes the blame (-.539 WPA). They have only scored 14 runs. Of the seven teams that have played six games, the Cardinals rank last among them in runs scored; they trail the next closest team (Mariners) by 6 runs. I count 8 extra base hits in 218 total plate appearances. Yikes. For perspective, however, the Brewers and Rays have only scored 13 and 7 runs respectively in five games a piece. I have faith in those teams rebounding… so perhaps I should suspect the same of the Cardinals… but it’s easy to feel paranoid about your favorite team.
  • Carpenter had another strong outing (6 IP, 8 H, 0 BB, and 6 K); he touched 95 mph with his four-seam fastball.
  • Believe it or not, Brian Tallet led the team in win probability added (.032) despite only facing one batter. He induced a ground ball from Lyle Overbay with guys on first and third to end the seventh inning. Tallet has looked very capable early on.
  • Though Jason Motte has yet to strike out a batter, his velocity looks fine. According to Brooks Baseball, his four-seam fastball averaged 96 mph; another pitch was qualified as a two-seamer that averaged 94 mph. Spring Training struggles aside, I suspect he’ll be fine going forward.


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Andy Beard

Proud STL resident. Baseball enthusiast. Music lover. Theology thinker/reader. MA in Clinical Psych. Never met a pizza I didn't like.

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2 Responses to “Games 5 & 6 Analytics”

  1. I think I’m comfortable giving the offense a little while before I get too concerned. Adding Holliday and really Pujols is bound to help. I think Berkman can keep getting on base and there’s no reason Colby can’t keep this up… That’s a solid 4. At least one or two of the rest are bound to have decent years if only by luck alone…

    • I think you’re right. There’s no point in panicking six days into the season… but I do think the fan base is extra sensitive given the inconsistent nature of the offense in 2010.

      The good news is that they are walking at a decent rate (10.4%) and putting the ball in play better than most teams (16% K rate). Unfortunately, they’ve had a difficult time elevating the ball as you pointed out the other day. FanGraphs lists their batted ball data:

      GB 55.9% (1/30)
      FB 28.7% (30/30)
      LD 15.4% (23/30)

      So they’ve hit the highest percentage of ground balls, but the fewest fly balls (of which only 4.7% have been HR)… and not very many line drives. No wonder they’ve been so boring to watch/follow.

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