Over at Fangraphs, with the help of Dan Szymborski, they’ve finally rolled out their Rest of Season ZiPS Update, along with a final season update of the end-of-season numbers.  I’ve compiled all of the Cardinals hitters’ numbers in the spreadsheet below (y’know, with a protractor in my mother’s basement) with some notes below:

Click to embiggen

For those who don’t know how these work, Dan takes the players’ numbers-to-date, which are “in the books,” and regresses them to his true talent projections to get the “rest of season” numbers.  Then he adds those rest of season numbers to the players’ numbers-to-date to get the final statistics.  For example, he thinks that Colby has outperformed his true talent up until now, so Colby’s rest of season numbers are .268/.349/.450 instead of the .375/.464/583 he’s hit so far.  However, since those 56 PA are already in the books, they get added onto 533 PA of .268/.349/.450 ball to get his final line of .278/.360/.463. Also note that the projections assume that each player plays full time.

Notes, in bulleted format:

  • Pujols’ end of season wOBA would be the lowest of his career
  • I would love Berkman’s final line, though I would probably take the over on his OBP. Anecdotally, he looks like classic Berkman so far this season
  • Give me a firm over on Theriot’s numbers. I think the walk rate so far this season is for real, and would guess that .350 would be the 50% mark for his OBP
  • Yadier Molina’s line looks almost EXACTLY like his 2010 line. 2010: .262/.329/.342. 2011: ..263/.329/.348
  • Holliday’s projection baffles me.  I understand that ZiPS projects an aging curve, but he projects a .317/.388/.543 career hitter to hit .297/.378/.494 for the rest of the season. Looking at the numbers, it’s almost entirely attributed to a regression in BABIP (.329 vs a career .344), so I understand why the projection sees Holliday this way. Still, for a player who hits the ball as hard as consistently as Holliday does, I could see him being a true talent .335-.340 BABIP guy.
  • I love Colby Rasmus. He’s a Fire Burning in the Outfield. That is all.

I’ll be traveling for the next few days, but I’ll try and get to the pitchers when I get a chance.

One Response to “2011 ZiPS Update: The Hitters”

  1. I have my grandfather’s slide rule if you need to borrow it.

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