In my once a year post (we’ll see if we can change that, but no promises) I thought I’d spill some ink on the Jim Bowden generated (insider content)  Oscar Taveras for Jurickson Profar potential swap.  I examined the WAR output for what I consider the relevant positions under the scenario where the Birds don’t make the trade and under the scenario where they do not.  As inputs to the process I averaged the Steamer and Oliver WAR projections found on Fangraphs.  First the “don’t make the trade” scenario 

Player PA 2013 Player PA 2014 2015 2016
SS Kozma 600 1.0 SS Kozma 600 1.5 2.0 2.0
Rep 100 0.0 Rep 100 0.0 0.0 0.0
LF Holliday 650 4.4 LF Holliday 650 3.9 3.3 2.8
Adams 50 0.1 Adams 50 0.2 0.2 0.2
CF Jay 600 3.4 CF Jay 600 2.9 2.4 1.9
Rep 100 0.0 Tavares 100 0.6 0.7 0.8
RF Beltran 575 2.7 RF Tavares 500 3.1 3.5 3.9
Adams 125 0.3 Adams 200 0.6 0.8 0.8
1B Craig 600 3.2 1B Craig 600 2.7 2.2 1.7
Adams 100 0.2 Adams 100 0.3 0.4 0.4
TOTAL WAR 15.4 15.8 15.6 14.5

and then the scenario where they make the trade

Player PA 2013 Player PA 2014 2015 2016
SS Profar 600 2.4 SS Profar 600 2.9 3.4 3.9
Rep 100 0.0 Rep 100 0.0 0.0 0.0
LF Holliday 650 4.4 LF Holliday 650 3.9 3.3 2.8
Adams 50 0.1 Bench 50 0.1 0.1 0.1
CF Jay 600 3.4 CF Jay 600 2.9 2.4 1.9
Rep 100 0.0 Bench 100 0.2 0.2 0.2
RF Beltran 575 2.7 RF Craig 600 2.7 2.2 1.7
Adams 125 0.3 Bench 100 0.2 0.2 0.2
1B Craig 600 3.2 1B Adams 600 1.9 2.4 2.4
Adams 100 0.2 Bench 100 0.2 0.2 0.2
TOTAL WAR 16.7 15.0 14.5 13.4

As you can see, under the assumptions I made its a trade of wins now (upgrading at SS this year) for wins later (a worse future bench).  Clearly this is a very assumption based (how good is Kozma, what bench player would be acquired to fill the top bat off the bench role?) analysis, but there’s probably nothing overly outlandish that I’ve done.  All in all the analysis ends up in the place that most people would have guessed… it’s darn close.

 

As I write this, Matt Adams hits another home run…

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Steve Sommer

Simulation analyst by day, father and baseball nerd by night

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