I found an error in my spreadsheet that miscalculated WAR for KMac.  Long story short the final table becomes even more bunched


Bryan Augenstein 3.7 2.8 3.2
Lance Lynn 3.1 3.5 3.3
Kyle McClellan 3.2 2.9 3.1

I’m not excited yet about Carp’s injury.  It’s the first start of spring, and him not putting much mileage on his arm this spring is probably an ok thing anyway.  That said, clearly we have to be concerned long term.  We already took a look at the internal candidates to replace AW, and the results were something like 1.5-2 WAR (for that starter slot) in the best case out of the replacement.  If Carp were to go down, we’d be looking at replacing him with likely a 1-1.5 WAR pitcher.


lboros had a front page post at VEB this morning in which he talked about the Maple Street Press Cardinals Annual.  It’s a worthy purchase if you have a few bucks laying around.


The Cardinals site has some limited video of Matias (H/T to Future Redbirds among others)


I created a Facebook page for those that would rather follow us there than on Twitter or via RSS.


Also, don’t forget about the GHG mailbag (mailbag@gashousegraphs.com) if you have Cardinals questions or saber questions in general.





The chart summarizes the bullpen usage in 2010 in terms of Levearge Index.  High, Medium and Low discriminators are pulled from baseball reference and are as follows: High 1.5+; medium 0.7 to 1.5; low less than 0.7


Nothing too out of the ordinary there.   Might prefer than Boggs gets a few more looks at high leverage opportunities especially if K-Mac starts.


And a table about how the high leverage opportunities broke out.


Ryan Franklin 19%
Jason Motte 18%
Trever Miller* 17%
Kyle McClellan 15%
Dennys Reyes* 14%
Mitchell Boggs 11%
Fernando Salas 3%
Blake Hawksworth 2%
Mike MacDougal 2%
Other 1%
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Andy already wrote up a summary of the reactions and analysis in the blogosphere on the Wainwright injury.  Check out his piece and the pieces he links to get a good feel for how the sabermetric community is viewing the injury.  With that said while there has been some analysis done on possible replacements/replacement scenarios, I figured I’d throw my 2 cents in as well.  This first piece will look at the internal candidates.  I limited the look to three options: Bryan Augenstein, Lance Lynn, and Kyle McClellan (you could argue PJ Walters, but he projects worse than Lynn and is therefore uninteresting analytically).  The following table summarizes each pitchers respective ZIPs and PECOTA projections

Bryan Augenstein 4.35 2.05 4.92 1.01
Lance Lynn 4.87 1.1 4.39 1.97
Kyle McClellan (St) 4.58 1.43 4.75 1.12

The projection for McClellan is his reliever ERA + 1 (ref this post).  WAR assumes 160 IP.

That’s not the end of the story however; as shifting McClellan to the rotation has an impact on the bullpen as well, so this table is of interest also

Fernando Salas 3.79 1.08 3.86 1.01
Kyle McClellan (Re) 3.58 1.33 3.75 1.13

Now we have to combine those two pieces of data to see which course of action has the best WAR. Additionally we have to account for the remaining 50 or so starters innings to get from a number of 210 IP to the 160 I have allotted to these guys. It is assumed that the other 50 would be filled by the next best option of Lynn or Augenstein. That COAs look about like:

Bryan Augenstein 3.7 2.8 3.2
Lance Lynn 3.1 3.5 3.3
Kyle McClellan 3.2 2.7 2.9

WAR represented is the 5th starter spot plus the one reliever slot (modeled at a Leverage Index of 1.4 at 75 innings)

Using the projections as stated above, it appears that the best COA would be to use Lynn as the 5th starter, with Augenstein as a fill in if need be.  That said the numbers are pretty close all the way around, so if you think McClellan could hold his stamina better than the normal reliever making this switch (and thus not losing the 1 run of ERA) then any option is probably pretty close.

Adam Wainwright on July 20, 2008

Image via Wikipedia

And just like that, a cloud developed over the Cardinals’ 2011 season. Let’s start with a couple of quotes… then I’ll guide us through the plethora of opinions and input (links, links, links) on what this means for the Cardinals in 2011 and beyond after the jump.

From the Post Dispatch’s Joe Strauss:

Adam Wainwright, the Cardinals’ ace, projected opening day starter and two-time Cy Young Award contender, will receive a second opinion today after an initial exam found enough damage to a ligament near his right elbow to suggest surgery that would put him out for this season and a large part of 2012.

And from the injury expert himself, Will Carroll, at Sports Illustrated:

If Wainwright has Tommy John surgery, he’ll miss the 2011 season while undergoing the nine-to-twelve month rehab. He should be able to come back without any real challenge, following the same path as Joe Nathan, the Twins closer who is returning from elbow reconstruction. Nathan tore his ligament at a similar part of spring training in 2010 and is throwing without limitations now.

Continue reading »

Values are rv100

And then swing rate

At least they line up pretty well.

Sliding the GOTW in at the last minute :)

Values are rv100. Apologies for no strike zone, I’m still trying to figure out R. Keep getting an error when adding the zone.

Anyhow… I’ll keep working on the heat maps…

Big thanks to Millsy for the code to get me this far

Ryan Howard (left) and Albert Pujols

Image via Wikipedia

In case you weren’t paying attention this week, Albert Pujols’ self-imposed deadline passed without signing a new contract with the team.   There’s a good argument to be made, however, that we never should have reached this point.  Following the 2009 season, I advocated the team taking a more active role in extending Pujols.  The team, obviously, elected not to do that and thus, they allowed him to play the 2010 season under the contract he signed exactly 7 years ago today.  (How’s that for timing, huh?)

The reasons I advocated attempting to extend Pujols at that time were that:

  1. The team could avoid the likely salary inflation that would occur in the subsequent year.
  2. The team could avoid any hard feelings that might result from their refusal to negotiate with Albert on a new contract.
  3. If the team concluded that they would not be able to afford a new contract for Pujols, they could trade him before his 10-and-5 rights kick in and receive more than 2 draft choices as compensation.

To be sure, this decision was hardly a no-brainer.  There were certain advantages to delaying those contract negotiations, including:

  1. It gave the team one more year’s worth of information to assess Albert’s value.
  2. It enabled the team to take advantage of Albert’s 2010 $16 million salary.
  3. The economy was in the toilet at the time and the team may have had reason to believe that salaries wouldn’t escalate the way they had in the past.
  4. The team’s revenue may fall a great deal due to the country’s economic state.

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Jaime Garcia on July 20, 2008

Image via Wikipedia

I agreed to participate in this month’s United Cardinals Bloggers activity. In case you didn’t know, we’ve created an e-mail chain in which we’ve been exchanging questions/answers about various Cardinals-related issues. You can find the full set of links HERE.

Today is my turn at hosting and I posed the following question to my fellow bloggers:

Jaime Garcia set a strong precedent for seasons to come in his rookie campaign: 2.70 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 7.27 K/9, 3.53 BB/9, and 55.9 GB%.

Marcel (Tom Tango’s projection system) puts Garcia at 3.36 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 7.43 K/9, and 3.39 BB/9 for 2011.

Would you take the over or under on Marcel’s forecast? Why?

Since this roundtable project includes a wide array of Cardinals blogs, I suspect that there might be a few more readers visiting today who are unfamiliar with sabermetrics. Welcome! For those of you interested in learning more about sabermetric principles, check out the collection of links that Steve compiled in Gas House Graphs’ “Saber 101 & Saber 201″ tab… or you can peruse the ever-growing FanGraphs library. Here’s a specific entry dealing with the various projection systems, including Marcel, which follows the most basic model.

By the way, if you still have questions about certain sabermetric principles, maybe we can help. Feel free to use the new Gas House Graphs mailbag set up by Steve yesterday to ask us questions.

Blogger reactions are after the jump. My insightful (or boring… you decide!) analysis can be found at the end.

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We’re adding a new feature, the Gas House Graphs mailbag.  If you have questions about the Cardinals or sabermetrics in general, fie off an email to mailbag@gashousegraphs.com and you’ll likely get an answer from one (or more) of our authors here on the blog.

Additionally, we’ll put the email address in a handy location over on the sidebar.

On an unrelated note, if you subscribed to our RSS feed early on in our existence, it has since been switched over to full articles for your convenience.  You probably need to re-subscribe to get that feature.  If anything appears off, just let me know.  Thanks for reading, and we hope you’re enjoying GHG!

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