Neat tool.

What happens when you super-impose Pujols’ batted balls into the Juicebox? 9 extra homers, that’s what. That would be a total of 56 homers for last season, if Albert were an Astro. (Yeah, that made me twinge).

Of course the problem with this is these graphics is they show where the ball was fielded, not where the ball landed, so take this with a grain of salt. I do think if Albert played half his games at Minute Maid, he would probably be hitting 50 per year.

Fun toy.

H/t to the creator and finder of cool stuff, Tango.

Move up The Mang?

Earlier today our esteemed, bespectacled beat writer posed the question to the fans - Where should Felipe Lopez bat in Cardinals’ order? I have a proposal that I expect to go over like a lead balloon…

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Steve already touched on Jeremy Greenhouse’s fantastic work over at Baseball Analysts of using linear weights on strike zone location for 2009 batters, and found a disturbing trend that outside of Pujols, Holliday and Schumaker, the Cardinals seemed to have done an awfully poor job on smacking a pitch down the middle when it comes. I thought it would be fun to put together some visualizations of the entire zone for the main members of the lineup and their run values per 100 swings for the 2009 season.

Here ya go -

Skip made his hay off of driving pitches down the middle, but seemed to sort of struggle with everything else, and was especially susceptible to high and inside pitches.

Rasmus liked low and in, high and away, but didn’t do much with anything else.

So there was a glitch in The Machine, and that’s pitches low and away, and low pitches in general. It’s not as if Pujols will be legging out a lot of ground balls. Pujols loved middle-up and high and away.

Luddy really struggled with pitches up in the zone, especially up and in.

Holliday handled pitches with low and inside and low and down the middle pitches, something most batters struggle with. He murdered a lot of pitched down the middle.

Yadi can handle himself on the inside of the plate, so long as the pitch isn’t up. He struggled mostly with pitches outside, which struck me as odd, because my general impression of Molina is that he’s pretty good taking the ball the other way. You’d think pitches on the outer half would be the type of pitches he could slap to the right side.

Now the Boogameister. It’s a little surprising to see a ground-ball hitter and a fast runner like Ryan to do so poorly with low pitches.

I’m going to pass on the more depressing cast-aways (DeRosa, Greene, Thurston), but I couldn’t resist putting together a zone for Ankiel. Ank handled pitches down the middle, but was helpless on just about everything else.

This was fun. Sometime soon we’ll have to look at pitchers.

Just wanted to put a couple of charts up that give a pretty decent view of Albert’s offense through the years.  First, his wOBA by components graph (note these were computed with each year’s coefficients)

That’s pretty consistent, with only one year that tickles .400 or below.  And for another look, the same chart from a percentage view

This gives a better view into the relative way he’s amassed his offensive production.  Wow he got a lot of his value from the HR in 2006…  anyway, just thought these graphs were interesting given the occasion of his 3rd MVP.

 

My plan is to get my simulation back out now that I have my defensive projections to input in there, so look for some comparisons of different potential roster constructions.  If you have any you’d specifically like to see drop them in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

First off a hello to all you PAH9ers; second, thanks to Erik for letting me tag along over here.

For those that haven’t heard of me I used to write here.  I’ll basically be doing the same thing over here that I did over there, which means a steady diet of numbers, graphs, and pitch f/x.  Some of it will be broad spectrum, but most of it will be Cards focused (or at least brought back to the Cards).  Now back to your regularly scheduled analysis.

CHONE projections for hitters are out, so now we can provide another piece of the 2010 projected value puzzle.  First just a quick table of the “relevant” Cardinals and their projected wOBA (for full stat lines go poke around the linked site)

Name 2010 Projected wOBA
Albert Pujols 0.433
Ryan Ludwick 0.356
Colby Rasmus 0.334
Skip Schumaker 0.330
Yadier Molina 0.329
Brendan Ryan 0.310
Julio Lugo 0.311
Allen Craig 0.346
David Freese 0.337

It’s good (but maybe overly optimistic?) to see both Freese and Craig come out as better than league average performers offensively. That really bodes well for Freese as all signs point to him being a capable (i.e. league average-ish defender).  It’s much less stellar to see Boog so low.

Keep reading after the jump for some FA projections along with a little more Cards analysis

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I realize I’m late to the party. Heck, I’m crashing the party. I’m sure C70 won’t  mind. Here are my top 5 stories for 2008:

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