I’m a little late to the party here.  I started this post the night the Mauer signing was announced, but slacked on finishing it.  Anyhow, here’s what I came up with.  Joe Mauer’s deal was formally announced at 8 yrs $184M.  The immediate question that comes to mind for Cardinals fans is, “How does this deal affect the pending Pujol’s negotiations?”  We can’t guess at that until we make an attempt to compare the players over the lifetime of such deals.   First what could Mauer look like during the entirety of his deal?  The following tables attempt to give insight into that question.  First if he can remain at C during the entire deal

Year Age Pos Pos adj rep def off War
2011 28 C 7 21 6.5 36.0 7.1
2012 29 C 7 21 5.5 35.3 6.9
2013 30 C 7 21 4.5 35.3 6.8
2014 31 C 7 21 3.5 34.4 6.6
2015 32 C 7 21 2.5 33.8 6.4
2016 33 C 7 21 1.5 31.9 6.1
2017 34 C 7 21 0.5 28.3 5.7
2018 35 C 7 21 -0.5 24.2 5.2

Then if he has to switch to 1B at the end of the deal

Year Age Pos Pos adj rep def off War
2011 28 C 7 21 6.5 36.0 7.1
2012 29 C 7 21 5.5 35.3 6.9
2013 30 C 7 21 4.5 35.3 6.8
2014 31 C 7 21 3.5 34.4 6.6
2015 32 C 7 21 2.5 33.8 6.4
2016 33 1B -11 21.5 2 34.6 4.7
2017 34 1B -11 21.5 1 30.7 4.2
2018 35 1B -11 21.5 0 26.3 3.7

And a similar table constructed for Albert

Year Age Pos Pos adj rep def off War
2011 31 1B -11 21.5 5 60.0 7.6
2012 32 1B -11 21.5 4 59.4 7.4
2013 33 1B -11 21.5 3 57.3 7.1
2014 34 1B -11 21.5 2 53.4 6.6
2015 35 1B -11 21.5 1 49.0 6.0
2016 36 1B -11 21.5 0 45.2 5.6
2017 37 1B -11 21.5 -1 39.7 4.9
2018 38 1B -11 21.5 -2 35.4 4.4

You may be asking “Where did you come up with those tables?”  Which would be a valid question.  I used CHONE to get a feel for the offensive production levels, CHONE for catcher D, my own projections for Albert’s D, and the JC Bradbury criteria (read as star player with slow aging) aging curve that MGL developed using the delta method.

Now that we have all of the assumptions out of the way, let’s talk about the actual impact.  The Mauer deal sets the market at somewhere between $3.6M and $4M (unadjusted for inflation, but all numbers will be unadjusted) per projected WAR depending on which of the above scenarios you see as more likely.  Translating those numbers over to the Pujols deal yields an 8 year deal between $180M and $197M, so I’d say 8 yrs $190M would be about “right”.  If we back up to a 6 year deal that would work out to $145M to $160M over 6 years, although the $/win for Mauer was driven up slightly by the length of deal.  If we limit the Mauer deal to 6 yrs then the price for Pujols translates to $140M to $145M over 6 years.  Most of these parameters work out to somewhere in the $25M/year range, so that “feels” about right.

© 2011 Gas House Graphs Suffusion theme by Sayontan Sinha