## Defensive Projections Take 2

Nov 212009

A few weeks ago I posted a set of defensive projections for SS based on regressing a 3 year average UZR to a population based on the Fan’s Scouting Report created by tangotiger.  After some discussion over  at The Book Blog, I altered my methodology a little and have come up with a set of projections for all positions.

First a quick discussion about the methodology.  The projected values are a weighted average of the

1. Players 3 year weighted UZR (5/4/3 style)
2. The UZR mean of the “scouting population” to which the player belongs (more on this in a minute)
3. The league average (i.e. 0).

The weights are

1. Effective defensive games over the three year sample (also weighted, so not just the sum)
2. 125 games
3. 125 games

which basically means the larger the 3 year sample, the less impact the “regressions” have, which falls under the basic premise of the more data you have the less you need to regress.

The scouting population is determined by where the player ranks in Tango’s Fans Scouting Report (FSR).  I took the last three years of FSR data and found the average UZR/150s for various bins of players (currently done by ordinal ranking, but will likely transition to binning by overall score once 2009 numbers are computed by Tango ).  I then crossed that data with were the specific player ranked in the 2009 voting, with that number becoming the scouting regressing factor.

For those that read my previous post on it, Method 2 was the methodology adopted (as MGL pointed out that it was the correct method).  Anyway on to the results.  First the leaders (with a minimum of 60 effective DGs)

Name Pos UZR/150
Travis Ishikawa 1B 5.6
Chase Utley 2B 10.8
Omar Vizquel SS 9.3
Evan Longoria 3B 11.9
Carl Crawford LF 10.9
Franklin Gutierrez CF 12.2
Jayson Werth RF 11.2

You’ll note that the projections are for UZR/150 so you’d need to utilize an expected playing time to convert these to runs.  For example, I find it highly unlikely that Omar Vizquel will get enough playing time to save ~9 runs, but clearly if he played 75 DGs then he’d save ~4-5 runs.

Now for the laggards

Name Pos UZR/150
Jason Giambi 1B -5.6
Alberto Callaspo 2B -5.7
Yuniesky Betancourt SS -10.1
Edwin Encarnacion 3B -8.9
Adam Dunn LF -14.9
Vernon Wells CF -10.1
Brad Hawpe RF -19.1

For those that want to make the argument that Dunn won’t be playing left field again, second to last went to Delmon Young. For those making the same argument about Giambi, second to last there was Billy Butler. I’m posting the results spreadsheet on google docs with the link over on the sidebar, so feel free to download it and use it for whatever you want. The sheet contains the position the projection is for, the projection itself, 3 year UZR/150, and the effective DGs.

Finally, since this is a Cardinals blog, I wouldn’t leave you without giving you the key returning Cardinal players

Name Pos UZR/150
Brendan Ryan SS 7.2
Colby Rasmus CF 5.5
Albert Pujols 1B 5.0
Ryan Ludwick RF 1.0
Skip Schumaker 2B -5.1
Julio Lugo SS -5.9

A couple of final caveats about the projections. I know there are players missing, and there are definitely player/position combos missing. As a first pass I only projected the position that they had been identified with in the FSR. I plan to remedy that, but it’ll have to wait until the next iteration. Also, I didn’t apply an aging factor, which is clearly not a good way to go about projecting. In his BtB piece Jeff mentioned a -0.7 UZR, but I want to give some thought about how to apply that to UZR/150. Hopefully the next iteration will have some aging factor applied, up until then, apply whatever you see fit. Anyway, download away, and let me know if you have questions/problems.

## 2010 UZR Projections and the Cardinals

Nov 142009

Hiatus over. I’ll be writing about the Cardinals here when I’m feeling the urge, and in pithy fashion.

Jeff Zimmerman at Beyond the Boxscore put together 2010 UZR projections for the spreadsheet mafia. Sweeeet. For those of you who like to see the math, you can go here to learn more.  We’ll just stick with the projections for our favorite local sports team.

Albert roolz. He is projected to be the best defensive 1B, well ahead of the incumbent Gold Glover Adrian Gonzalez, for what it’s worth. Colby and his Boog-ness are near the top of the leader-boards for their respective positions as well.

I’m not quite ready to take the over on Skip’s projection quite yet, but he did show a lot of improvement over the course of the season.

Now here is a look at some of the free agents and speculated trade targets of the Cardinals for their vacancies in the left corners.

Take that, Adam Dunn bandwagon. There’s no DH in the NL just in case any of you have forgot. Over the past two seasons Dunn has hit 78 homers, hit 205 RBI’s and drawn 238 walks, and yet has completely sabotaged his value as a player by being a terrible outfielder. His WAR those two seasons, including base-running: 2.2. OVER TWO SEASONS. 2.2. -13 runs actually seems optimistic for Dunn, considering his recent disastrous play, and that’s saying something.

Jermaine Dye….blah. Brad Hawpe. Blarf. I can’t believe anyone would say Bay is a more complete player than Holliday, but it’s being said by some uninformed folk out there who should know better.

I wouldn’t mind seeing what Dayton Moore would want for David DeJesus, and then seeing Moz Def couldn’t sign Figgins at a reasonable enough rate. That wouldn’t provide any ballyhooed “Albert Protection”, but those are two solid defenders who can get on base at a decent clip. There are more ways to win than just slugging.

## Defensive Graphs - Shortstops

Sep 172009

Inspired by all of the quality new graphs coming out of BtB, I thought I’d keep up my trend of putting some new charts out there.  There seems to be many graphs dealing with offense and overall value, but not many defense specific graphs.  That being said, here’s my feeble attempt at displaying two of the better defensive shortstops out there.

 © 2011 Gas House Graphs Suffusion theme by Sayontan Sinha